Uncertainty statement
What we know, what we don't, what is being done, and every number you plan to say in absolute form with its source.
The statement is essential when you will give numbers, risks or facts that are not known yet; skip it for a routine interview with none. The numbers table is essential in the same cases (Communicating uncertainty). The risk converter does the arithmetic for the absolute-form column.
Statement
Essential when there are numbers, risks or facts not known yet; optional otherwise (Communicating uncertainty).
Numbers
One row per number. Say it as a count out of a stated total, over a stated time. The risk converter does the arithmetic on numbers you give it.
How to use this sheet
- Three parts first. Fill in what we know, what we don't know yet and what is being done to find out. Add when you expect to know more.
- One row per number. Write the number as you will say it, then the same number as a count out of a stated total, over a stated time, with its source.
- Say what would change the conclusion. It tells the reporter where the uncertainty is.
Dr. Lena Ostrowski (fictional) writes: know, the bloom covers about a third of the lake by the satellite image; don't know, whether toxins are above the state advisory level; doing, the state lab is testing and results are due in 48 hours. Her numbers row: "2 of the 14 blooms in the past five summers tested above the state advisory level" (her own data, fictional), with the lab as the source. The state health department, not Lena, issues the advisory.
The sheet helps you state uncertainty. It does not judge whether a study, an estimate or a test is sound, and it gives no medical or safety advice. The author of the estimate, an expert in the field or the responsible agency settles that.